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Treasuries are poised for their worst month in over two years, continuing their decline following mixed US economic data. A surprising drop in job openings was countered by a rise in consumer confidence, as traders anticipate a quarter-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
Gold prices experienced a slight decline as traders awaited crucial US economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions. Currently steady above $2,746 an ounce, investors are looking for insights from inflation and payroll reports, which may reveal economic resilience despite potential job growth disruptions from recent hurricanes. Economists anticipate a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's Nov. 6-7 meeting, a move that typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold.
Most Asian stocks are poised to rise, following Wall Street's gains as traders focus on the upcoming US election and crucial economic data influencing the Federal Reserve's next move. In Japan, stocks are expected to remain stable as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba aims to restore political stability after the ruling coalition's recent election setback. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 saw most sectors advance at the start of a busy corporate earnings week, despite a decline in energy shares amid falling oil prices.
U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise, with the 10-year yield reaching a three-month high of 4.284% and the 2-year yield at 4.126%. Traders are anticipating upcoming jobs figures and consumer confidence data ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, while the Federal Reserve remains in a blackout period before next week's interest rate decision.
America's economy is defying recession predictions, with inflation-adjusted quarterly growth averaging 2.9% since early 2023. The Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes have not hindered this growth, and the Atlanta Fed's model suggests a robust annualized expansion of 3.3% for the third quarter.
The U.S. housing market faces a significant shortage of 4 million homes, impacting affordability and contributing to rising prices, according to the Property Brothers. Despite a slight decrease in median home prices, they warn that without addressing this shortage, future generations may struggle to buy homes. Home equity remains strong, with homeowners holding over $17.6 trillion in net equity, suggesting that long-term investment in real estate can still be beneficial.
Treasuries traders are concluding a volatile week marked by a significant spike in bond-market volatility, reaching a yearly high. The 10-year yield surged above 4.2% for the first time since July before easing, as investors reevaluated expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and the upcoming US election.
UBS Global Wealth Management has upgraded its global stock market rating from "neutral" to "attractive," citing strong U.S. economic growth, easing monetary policies, and advancements in the AI sector. The MSCI World Index has surged 16.3% this year, with further stimulus from China expected to support global markets. However, the upcoming U.S. presidential election poses a short-term risk, particularly if former President Trump wins, which could trigger market volatility due to potential trade concerns.
UBS Global Wealth Management has upgraded its outlook on global equities to "attractive," driven by strong U.S. economic growth, easing monetary policies from major central banks, and an AI boom. The MSCI world equity index has surged 16.3% this year, with further stimulus from China expected to bolster global stocks. While technology remains the primary growth driver, potential risks from the upcoming U.S. elections could impact market stability.
The IMF declares the inflation battle largely won, noting a significant decline in global price increases without triggering a recession. While central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have begun to cut rates, they remain cautious, emphasizing readiness to adjust if inflation trends reverse. The IMF forecasts global inflation will drop to 3.5% by the end of next year, below pre-pandemic averages.
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